Abstract: Birthplace Favoritism
Birthplace Favoritism Revisited: Replication, Modern Evidence, and Crisis Dynamics
This paper extends the birthplace favoritism literature by re-estimating core findings in a fully open-source framework that combines leader birthplace data (PLAD) and subnational boundaries (GADM). I confirm the main findings from earlier work and then extend the analysis into the modern satellite era (2012-2025) using VIIRS luminosity data.
The higher temporal granularity of VIIRS shows that favoritism appears immediately when leaders take office and remains after departure, in contrast to lagged and transient dynamics suggested by legacy night-light data. The analysis also identifies a sudden and persistent birthplace premium around the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Because pandemic-period estimates can be confounded by underlying differences in leader birthplaces, I apply two mitigation strategies: high-dimensional country-month-population-density fixed effects, and a restricted comparison group based on leader-producing regions. Both approaches preserve a sizable crisis-period favoritism premium, concentrated in weaker democracies.